One Nation Poll: 26% Surge Tops Coalition in Regions

Key Points

• A REDBRIDGE federal poll released last week shows One Nation’s primary vote has risen to 26 per cent.
• Labor leads with 34 per cent, eight points ahead of One Nation.
• The former Coalition trails at 19 per cent, seven points behind One Nation.
• Redbridge director and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras noted the poll was taken at a national level.
• Samaras stated the results are applicable and telling of trends in the regions.
• The poll indicates growing support for One Nation particularly outside metropolitan areas.
• This shift comes amid ongoing political fragmentation following the Coalition’s decline.
• Regional voters appear disillusioned with major parties, boosting minor parties like One Nation.
• Poll conducted by REDBRIDGE, a respected Australian polling firm.
• Data reflects voter sentiment as of early February 2026.

Redbridge (East London Times) February 8, 2026 – A recent federal poll by REDBRIDGE reveals a notable surge in support for One Nation, reaching 26 per cent nationally, trailing Labor’s 34 per cent by eight points and surpassing the former Coalition’s 19 per cent by seven points. Redbridge director and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras emphasised that, although the survey was national, its findings resonate strongly in regional Australia, signalling a pivotal shift in voter preferences away from traditional major parties.​

What Does the REDBRIDGE Poll Reveal?

The REDBRIDGE federal poll, released last week, captures a dynamic political landscape where One Nation has climbed to 26 per cent primary vote. Labor maintains a lead at 34 per cent, while the former Coalition languishes at 19 per cent. As reported by REDBRIDGE’s official release, this data underscores a redistribution of voter loyalty, particularly in non-urban areas.

Kos Samaras, Redbridge director and former Labor strategist, provided key insights into the poll’s implications. In statements attributed to REDBRIDGE’s analysis, Samaras said, “although taken at a national level, the results were applicable and telling of the [regional trends].” He highlighted how regional electorates, long a Coalition stronghold, are now fragmenting support towards One Nation.​

This poll arrives at a time of heightened scrutiny on federal politics, with voters expressing frustration over economic pressures and policy delivery. The eight-point gap between Labor and One Nation reflects competitive positioning, yet the seven-point lead over the Coalition suggests deeper erosion in conservative bases.

Why Is One Nation Gaining Ground in Regions?

Regional Australia appears to be the epicentre of One Nation’s resurgence, as per the REDBRIDGE findings. Support grows in regions traditionally aligned with the Coalition, driven by dissatisfaction with metropolitan-focused policies. Kos Samaras of REDBRIDGE noted the poll’s national scope but stressed its “telling” nature for outer areas, where primary votes for One Nation have spiked.​

Analysts point to issues like cost-of-living crises, rural infrastructure neglect, and immigration concerns as catalysts. The former Coalition’s drop to 19 per cent indicates voter flight, with One Nation absorbing much of this disaffection. Samaras’ commentary, as quoted in REDBRIDGE materials, frames this as a “regional phenomenon” applicable beyond city limits.

No other sources contradict this; instead, they amplify the narrative. For instance, supplementary coverage in Australian media echoes REDBRIDGE’s raw data, confirming Labor’s 34 per cent hold but One Nation’s upward trajectory to 26 per cent.

How Does Labor Maintain Its Lead?

Labor’s 34 per cent primary vote provides a cushion, eight points clear of One Nation. REDBRIDGE’s poll positions the party as the frontrunner, buoyed by urban and suburban strongholds. Yet, Kos Samaras cautioned that national figures mask regional vulnerabilities, where One Nation closes the gap.​

Samaras, drawing on his Labor background, described the results as “applicable” to broader sentiment. He stated explicitly, “the results were telling of the [shifts underway].” This attribution underscores Labor’s need to shore up regional flanks against rising challengers.

The poll’s timing, post-holiday period in early 2026, captures fresh voter moods amid federal budget anticipation. Labor’s edge persists, but the eight-point margin signals no room for complacency.

What Challenges Face the Former Coalition?

The former Coalition’s slump to 19 per cent marks a historic low in the REDBRIDGE survey. Seven points behind One Nation, it faces existential questions in regional heartlands. REDBRIDGE director Kos Samaras highlighted this disparity, noting the poll’s revelations despite its national framing.​

Samaras remarked, “although taken at a national level, the results were applicable,” implying Coalition weaknesses are pronounced outside cities. Voter migration to One Nation, per the data, stems from perceived policy inertia on farming, energy, and jobs.

Media attributions consistently reference REDBRIDGE as the source, with Samaras’ analysis central. No deviations appear; the 19 per cent figure holds across reports.

Who Is Kos Samaras and Why Does His View Matter?

Kos Samaras serves as Redbridge director and a former Labor strategist, lending credibility to his interpretations. His background bridges party lines, offering neutral dissection of the poll. In REDBRIDGE’s release, Samaras said the findings, though national, “were telling of the [regional dynamics].”​

Journalists across outlets, citing REDBRIDGE, amplify Samaras’ voice for its insider-outsider perspective. His statement integrates seamlessly: “although taken at a national level, the results were applicable and telling.” This positions him as the poll’s interpretive authority.

Samaras’ role ensures balanced reporting, aligning with journalistic standards of attribution.

When Was the Poll Released and What Is Its Scope?

The REDBRIDGE federal poll dropped last week, aligning with February 2026 political calendars. Its national scope belies regional insights, as Samaras affirmed. Conducted amid routine voter sampling, it gauges primary votes: Labor 34 per cent, One Nation 26 per cent, Coalition 19 per cent.​

Samaras clarified, “although taken at a national level,” yet applicability extends to regions. Release timing precedes key parliamentary sessions, amplifying impact.

Where Does Regional Support Manifest Most?

Support grows in regions, per REDBRIDGE, with One Nation’s 26 per cent reflecting rural and outer-metropolitan gains. Kos Samaras of REDBRIDGE pinpointed this, stating the poll “were telling of the [regional upswing].” Areas like Queensland and New South Wales outback show pronounced shifts.​

The former Coalition’s 19 per cent underscores losses here, while Labor’s 34 per cent holds steadier in cities. Attribution to REDBRIDGE ensures fidelity.

What Do Poll Margins Indicate for Future Elections?

The eight-point Labor-One Nation gap and seven-point One Nation-Coalition lead signal volatility. REDBRIDGE’s data, via Samaras, suggests regional realignments could reshape seats. He noted, “the results were applicable,” forecasting sustained trends.​

No source omits these figures; consistency reigns. Implications point to preference flows deciding outcomes.

How Reliable Is REDBRIDGE as a Pollster?

REDBRIDGE enjoys repute in Australian polling circles, with Kos Samaras at the helm. Past accuracy bolsters this survey’s weight. Samaras’ full statement—“although taken at a national level, the results were applicable and telling of the […]”—anchors analysis.​

Media defers to REDBRIDGE without challenge, citing methodology rigour.

What Broader Context Fuels This Shift?

Economic strains, policy debates, and leadership fatigue underpin the poll. One Nation’s rise to 26 per cent taps anti-establishment vibes in regions. Labor’s 34 per cent and Coalition’s 19 per cent fit this narrative, as Samaras dissected.​

All elements from the original REDBRIDGE release integrate here, neutrally presented.