Labour Faces Bigger Redbridge Losses in 2026 Redbridge

Key Points

• Labour in Redbridge, linked to Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s local area, suffered a significant defeat in the Mayfield by-election in March 2025, losing to Ilford Independents candidate Noor Jahan Begum by nearly 2-to-1 in vote share.
• Labour’s vote share in Mayfield dropped by 44.7 percentage points to 26.1%, marking its worst local defeat in Redbridge for over a decade.
• Noor Jahan Begum won with 1,080 votes (42.5%), ahead of Labour’s Mazhar Saleem (663 votes, 26.1%), Conservative Robin Thakur (494 votes, 19.4%), and others.
• Redbridge Independents chair Vaseem Ahmed attributed the loss to Labour’s failure to represent ordinary people and issues around former council leader Jas Athwal’s rental properties.
• Projections for the 2026 Redbridge local elections suggest Labour could lose 17 seats, dropping from 54 to 37, while retaining a majority on the 63-seat council.
• Begum, who ran against Jas Athwal in Ilford South in 2024 (23.4% vs Athwal’s 40.2%), became Redbridge Independents’ first elected councillor in Mayfield.
• Turnout in the Mayfield by-election was 24.65% from an electorate of 10,342.

Redbridge (East London Times) May 5, 2026 – Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s local Labour Party in Redbridge faces the prospect of heavier losses in the upcoming 2026 local elections following a sharp decline already evident in 2025 by-elections.

What Happened in the 2025 Mayfield By-Election?

The Mayfield ward by-election in March 2025 delivered a stark setback for Redbridge Labour. Official results from Redbridge Council show Noor Jahan Begum of the Ilford Independents securing victory with 1,080 votes, elected to the vacant seat.

Labour candidate Mazhar Saleem received 663 votes, representing a 26.1% share after a 44.7-point collapse from previous levels.

Conservative Robin Thakur polled 494 votes (19.4%), Reform UK’s Paul Luggeri 121 (4.8%), Liberal Democrat Neil Hepworth 100 (3.9%), and Green Party’s Nadir Iqbal Gilani 85 (3.3%).

As reported in Skwawkbox, this result terrified Streeting, who holds Ilford North and whose area overlaps with Redbridge wards. The article detailed Labour’s drop to 26.1% against Ilford Independents’ 42.5%.

Why Did Labour Lose So Badly in Mayfield?

Redbridge and Ilford Independents chair Vaseem Ahmed provided a statement on the outcome, as quoted by Skwawkbox:

“This evening, Labour suffered its worst local election defeat in Redbridge for over a decade. Ordinary working people rejected a party that no longer represents them.”

Ahmed continued:

“Labour’s contempt for ordinary people was exemplified by their inaction towards former ward Cllr and Ilford South MP, Jas Athwal, who as leader of Redbridge Labour Council, failed to licence his many rental flats, whilst enacting rules that forced everyone else to do so.”

He added:

“The same Jas Athwal was also found to have rented ant-infested, mould-ridden, and substandard rental properties to vulnerable tenants and who, as Parliament’s biggest landlord, also owned a property with a failing care home. A rogue landlord, as described by many tenant rights groups, Athwal thought he and the local Labour party he led for over 10 years could get away with this atrocious behaviour.”

Ahmed praised Begum:

“Today, voters have given him and his supporters an almighty shock! Our party defeated Labour by nearly 2 to 1 in vote share… Noor Jahan Begum, our fantastic local candidate, proved that ordinary people can make a difference with organisation, tenacity and solidarity.”

The statement further noted broader discontent:

“Together, we defeated the politics that think it can with total impunity, attack our NHS, cut benefits to the poorest in society… A Labour Party that thinks nothing of arming and supporting Israel as it commits a genocide in Gaza is not a party of peace and internationalism.”

OnLondon’s Lewis Baston described the loss as emphatic, reflecting a shift in outer east London’s politics, with Labour’s vote crashing.

Who Is Noor Jahan Begum and Her Prior Campaigns?

Noor Jahan Begum ran as the main opposition to Labour’s Jas Athwal in the 2024 Ilford South general election, securing 9,643 votes (23.4%) to Athwal’s 16,537 (40.2%).

In Mayfield, her win marked her as Redbridge Independents’ first elected councillor. A Redbridge Independents X post in February 2026 congratulated her on election to the CEC Executive for London, noting two successive victories.

Reddit discussions highlighted her 2024 performance in the Muslim-heavy area (41.4% of Ilford South voters).

What Is the Context of Redbridge Labour’s 2025 Performance?

While full 2025 local election results for Redbridge are not detailed across sources, the Mayfield by-election stands as a key loss. PollCheck and other projections reference it amid ongoing declines.

Labour held Redbridge decisively in 2022 with 58 of 63 seats (54.5% vote share), up from prior years, while Conservatives fell to 5 seats. However, by-elections like Mayfield signal erosion.

Athwal, Redbridge Labour leader for over 10 years until his 2024 MP win, faced criticism over property licensing.

Streeting’s own 2024 general election in Ilford North saw a close challenge from independent Leanne Mohamad (15,119 votes to his 15,647), with Mohamad alleging irregularities.

What Do Projections Say for Redbridge 2026 Elections?

PollCheck projects Labour holding 37 seats (range 27-41) in 2026, down 17 from current holdings, with Conservatives at 13 (up 8), Greens 4, Reform UK 4, and others 4, securing a slim majority on the 63-seat council.

Key battlegrounds include South Woodford (Conservative leads Green by 0.7pp), Chadwell (Labour leads Green 2.3pp), Bridge (Green leads Reform 3.2pp), and Wanstead Village (Labour leads Lib Dems 3.2pp).

NELondoner reports YouGov data predicting Labour vote share losses but majority retention, with potential flips in Barkingside, South Woodford (Conservative), Bridge (Green), and Churchfields (Reform).

Redbridge elections are set for May 2026, covering all seats.

Background of the Development

Redbridge London Borough Council elections occur every four years, with by-elections filling vacancies like Mayfield’s in 2025. Labour gained control in 2022 with 58 seats from a 1% swing, holding 54.5% of votes amid 33.4% turnout.

Wes Streeting represents Ilford North, encompassing Redbridge wards, while Jas Athwal took Ilford South in 2024 after leading the council. The Ilford Independents emerged as opposition, gaining traction post-2024 general election challenges to both MPs.

The Mayfield vacancy arose prior to March 2025, leading to Begum’s win and Independents’ opposition foothold. Projections draw from polls like YouGov and ward models as of May 2026.

Prediction: Impact on Redbridge Voters

This development could affect Redbridge voters by increasing competition in the 2026 elections, potentially leading to more diverse council representation across 21 wards. Labour’s projected seat losses from 54 to 37 might reduce its dominance, allowing gains for Conservatives, Greens, Reform UK, and Independents in battlegrounds like South Woodford and Chadwell.