The Holborn St Pancras by-election is touted as a big test for both Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Green Party leader Zack Polanski as leaders of their respective parties. The constituency is a Labour stronghold, having voted Labour since its establishment in 1983, and is the former seat of ex-PM Keir Starmer. This is a chance for Labour to maintain their seat in London and prove their popularity with the “Burnham bounce”, with Sagal Abdi-Wali, the leader of Camden council, the party candidate. If they lose, it gives credence to the idea that the Green are serious left-wing alternatives to Labour that are not going to go away even if Starmer has, and will continue to attempt to push Labour to the left as they have done for the last year.
On the other hand, Zack Polanski is putting himself on the line by standing in the by-election, a test of both his leadership and his wider reputation. Since Polanski became leader, the Green Party’s membership has grown from 68,000 to 230,000 and their estimated national vote share has increased, including a peak at 21% in March, though this has since waned. But if Polanski fails to replace Starmer as the MP for Holborn St Pancras, it may also mean his party appears less likely to replace Labour in a wider electoral sense. Ironically, Starmer’s presence – and unpopularity – was a good thing for the Green Party as voters looked for left-wing alternatives to Labour; Burnham’s slight shift to the left of Starmer may prove costly for the Greens. This is a test of Zack Polanski’s personal popularity, the Greens’ popularity, and the capability of the Greens to make a statement by beating Labour in their own backyard, and in their former prime minister’s seat. But with regards to east Londoners who support the Green Party, they couldn’t be more optimistic about winning the seat in Camden.
Chair of the Barking and Dagenham Green Party, Redwanal Islam, who had been canvassing in Camden, said the Green Party was particularly appealing to young voters in Holborn St Pancras.
“They want a change, and they don’t really see this by-election with the eyes of the constituency boundary, but look at it from a more national perspective.”
The Green Party is thought to be the most popular party among young voters nationwide, with the Greens leading in demographics of 16 to 39 year old voters. Islam added that some long-time Labour voters were also yet to decide which party to vote for and were considering between the Labour Party and Green Party.
Rabiya Tehseen, chair of the Redbridge Greens, echoed this sentiment. She said that in speaking to people during canvassing,
“even if it’s a Labour supporter, they are talking, they wanna know, they seem interested. They’re sitting on the fence, they know what Greens can bring. Of course, if we have another Labour MP, it’s going to be the same story. If there’s another Green one, there will be more scrutiny, there will be a lot more calling the government out – the things that they can do, a lot more and much better.
“So I feel like some of the Labour supporters understand the situation…we’re getting to have those conversations….we’re having those voters engage with us.”
On the impact that east Londoners were having in campaigning for Zack Polanski, Islam said:
“East London Greens – and not just Barking & Dagenham, even other local parties – actively joined, because the…struggles that the people in Holborn and St. Pancras have, it’s not very different than other Londoners. I mean, we all share the same struggles, housing crisis, cost of living. I could learn from people over there that they have issues with crime rates as well, people no longer feel that safety they used to feel…we share the same struggles in Barking and Dagenham as well. I believe it’s the same in other boroughs.”
Tehseen said that she had seen Greens from Barking and Dagenham, Redbridge, Newham and Havering come from East London to Camden to leaflet, doorknock and canvas, as well as having canvassed with Polanski herself.
The race could be a tight one. The only distinct polling released so far has Labour winning 34% of seats to the Greens’ 30%. Lucy Powell, deputy leader of the Labour Party, stated that she was confident Sagal Abdi-Wali would defeat Zack Polanski, whilst election analyst and former YouGov chief Peter Kellner predicted a narrow win for the Greens. Polanski himself, meanwhile, admitted he was the underdog but insists the Greens can defy expectations. Both chairs also expressed that they were optimistic about Zack Polanski’s chances at winning.
Tehseen said:
“I do think he’s definitely going to make it, with the way the canvassing sessions and everything is going. But I think if he didn’t, it wouldn’t be a major setback, it’s a major Labour seat, and we are being very optimistic pushing for it.”
She added: “I feel like the fact it’s Zack and not another candidate standing gives people a lot more hope that we will get it.”
Islam said that he had seen positive signs and that door-knockers and campaigners perceived “high chances” of winning the by-election, of which included both East London Greens and more local campaign groups.
Some believe that Labour’s more progressive recent policies, such as banning trade with Israeli settlements and pushing back the decision to approve new oil licenses, have been timed to boost popularity before the by-election. More recently, Andy Burnham’s Labour conference speech was well-received.
When asked about whether she believed these decisions were passed with the Holborn St Pancras by-election in mind, Tehseen said: “definitely”, and put Labour’s decisions down to pressure from “the Green effect”.
“The fact that Ed Miliband came out and said yesterday [28 September],, everyone who has speaking out against the genocide, ‘we hear you, you were right’…some of us have been speaking about it from day one, and we feel like it’s a bit too late – okay, it’s a step in the right direction, it’s a bit too late, but it is because of us and the fact that we’ve been going with demonstrations, speaking up in an individual capacity, in a big capacity, it has had an effect.
But the fact is, Labour will never admit it, and I feel like Andy Burnham would get all the credit for it, because he’s come along and made changes. But I feel without the Green presence, these kind of decisions wouldn’t have been pushed.”
Islam added: “Obviously, we appreciate the actions that the government has taken – better late than never…we collectively do not think that this is enough. We are pressuring the government for a complete arms embargo on Israel.”
Tehseen further said that this illustrated the importance of getting Zack Polanski into parliament “to keep pushing for scrutiny and accountability, and to make sure Labour gets pushed to make those right decisions that people want them to take”.
The willingness of the Green Party branches in East London to help out in Holborn St Pancras is admirable. Whether their enthusiasm will pay off remains to be seen, though I think, perhaps more admirably, they will see it as a success no matter the result due to the work they’ve already put in, and will dust themselves off for whatever by-election (seemingly inevitably) comes next.
